Equilon FXThis article preserves the desk’s published view at that time. Prices, market assumptions and trade status are historical statements, not current guidance or independently verified performance.
AUD/USD reclaimed 0.66 yesterday on better-than-expected China PMI. The desk is long.
The level
0.66 has been the line in the sand for the Aussie since November. We've tested it from below seven times this cycle. Six of those tests rejected. The seventh — yesterday — closed cleanly above with conviction and held the level overnight in Asia.
This is the kind of structure that earns a position, not a watchlist note.
The trade
Why now, not next week
The usual mistake on reclaim trades is waiting for "more confirmation" — meaning a higher entry, a wider stop, and worse R. We've been watching this level for six months. Confirmation has already happened. Adding 30 pips of "safety" to the entry costs you 30 pips of R.
The risk we're paying for
If 0.66 was a fakeout — and the China data revisions hit hard — we lose 1R cleanly. The level invalidates structurally. That's the trade. It either works in 48 hours or it doesn't.
What invalidates
- A close back below 0.6585 on the 4H — kills the setup outright
- A surprise dovish RBA shift — would compress the rate differential before we get to target
- Risk-off macro print (US ISM crashing, geopolitics) — Aussie is the first thing sold
Educational only. Not investment advice. Read the full risk disclaimer.