Equilon FXThis article preserves the desk’s published view at that time. Prices, market assumptions and trade status are historical statements, not current guidance or independently verified performance.
EUR/USD has been mean-reverting inside 1.0750-1.0900 for the better part of six weeks. We've taken this fade three times. It's worked three times. Here's the fourth attempt.
Why this range exists
The ECB and the Fed are roughly neutralized. Both central banks are in wait-and-see. There is no meaningful rate-differential trend. Macro flows are balanced. In that environment, technical levels matter more than they otherwise would.
Until one side of this neutrality breaks — a hot CPI, a surprise ECB shift — the pair stays inside this band.
The trade
We're entering on the third tap of 1.0890. Each previous tap has rejected within 6 hours. Stop is above the structural top of the range.
The asymmetry
R:R of 4.0 means we can be right less than 25% of the time and still break even. Historically on this kind of range structure, mean-reversion at the boundaries works ~65% of the time. That's a big edge — but only if you size for losing.
When we kill the strategy
If we get stopped out twice in a row, we stop running this fade. Two consecutive losses on the same setup is the rule that says the regime has shifted. We don't argue with the chart, we listen to it. The range is a hypothesis, not a religion.
Educational only. Not investment advice. Read the full risk disclaimer.