Equilon FXThis article preserves the desk’s published view at that time. Prices, market assumptions and trade status are historical statements, not current guidance or independently verified performance.
If the SNB is buying CHF (selling foreign currency), the bid into EUR/CHF eventually moves the pair. Not on day one. But over weeks, standing on the same side of the SNB's flow is one of the cleanest macro trades in FX.
The desk has been adding to a long EUR/CHF position since late February. Here's the structure.
The macro setup
SNB officials have made three references to "undue franc strength" in the past five weeks. They've been quietly intervening — visible in the order book during US hours and in the size of CHF-denominated reserve flows in the central-bank data we track.
They want CHF weaker. They have unlimited balance sheet to make it so.
The position management
We've been scaling in, not punching in. Three tranches so far:
- 0.9520 (Feb 25, 0.4R risk)
- 0.9545 (March 4, 0.3R risk)
- 0.9560 (March 11, 0.3R risk)
Total current risk: 1.0R. Stop on the full position: 0.9485. Target: 0.9700.
If the trade works, we're up roughly 3.5R on a structural macro position. If it doesn't, we lose 1R cleanly. The asymmetry is the entire point.
Why scale-in instead of punch-in
With trades that depend on a slow macro flow rather than a fast technical break, scaling lets you take the position without getting chopped on the inevitable reversion days. We don't know when the trade pays. We just know the direction the SNB wants it to go.
What kills it
- An SNB policy reversal — would be telegraphed in advance, we'd close before the announcement
- A massive risk-off macro event — CHF strength overrides SNB's defense temporarily
- A clean break below 0.9485 — invalidates structurally, full stop, no "averaging in"
The discipline
Positions like this are the trades the desk makes its bread on over a year. Not the heroic single-bullet calls. Just sitting on the same side as the central bank, sizing modestly, holding the asymmetry. Boring is profitable.
Educational only. Not investment advice. Read the full risk disclaimer.