Equilon FXThis article preserves the desk’s published view at that time. Prices, market assumptions and trade status are historical statements, not current guidance or independently verified performance.
Total trades this week: one. Closed P&L: +1.8R. Skips: three. This is what a good week looks like.
The trade we took
Long EUR/USD from 1.0825 on Wednesday's London open. Stop at 1.0790, target 1.0890. Closed at 1.0883 on Thursday afternoon for +1.8R.
Setup: clean reclaim of the descending trendline that had capped price for nine sessions. Macro tailwind: dovish ECB walkback didn't materialize, Lagarde stayed neutral. Risk: small, structural.
The three trades we skipped
Monday — long GBP/USD at 1.2680. Setup looked clean on the chart but BoE's Bailey was speaking 4 hours later. You don't enter into a known central-bank catalyst unless you have a directional read on it. We didn't. Skipped. Bailey hit dovish, GBP/USD dropped 80 pips. The skip was free R saved.
Tuesday — short USD/CHF at 0.9050. SNB has been buying CHF discreetly for weeks. Going short the dollar against a currency where the central bank is also short it is a structural mismatch. You can be technically right and still bleed for two weeks. Skipped.
Friday — long AUD/USD at 0.6595. We're patient on the 0.66 reclaim trade (separate post). Entering at 0.6595 with the level still above us is reactive, not patient. Wait for the level. Skipped.
The lesson, written down
Most weeks the difference between profitable and not is not finding the right trade. It's skipping the wrong trade. Three skips this week saved us roughly 2.5R of negative expectancy. The one trade we took banked 1.8R. Net week: +1.8R. Trades taken: ~25% of available. Trades correct: 100%.
This is the cadence. Few entries, high conviction.
Educational only. Not investment advice. Read the full risk disclaimer.