A week that paid: 3R locked, two skips justified

Closed R for the week: +3.0. Trades taken: 3. Trades skipped: 2. Wins: 3. Losses: 0. This was a good week. Here's the breakdown — including what we got wrong even when we won.

The trades

Monday — long EUR/USD from 1.0815, closed 1.0865. +1.4R. Setup: third tap of the lower range, dovish-leaning ECB silence, US data quiet. Closed at the upper range boundary, didn't try to hold for the breakout.

Wednesday — short USD/CAD from 1.3680, closed 1.3625. +0.8R. Smaller R because we sized half — oil was lifting and the BoC was a known unknown ahead. Took the conservative win.

Friday — long GBP/USD from 1.2645, closed 1.2715. +0.8R. Reclaim of structural support. Closed before the weekend gap risk.

The skips

Tuesday — long AUD/USD at 0.6595. We've been patient on the 0.66 reclaim. Entering below the level on chart momentum is the trade we keep telling ourselves not to take. Skipped. AUD/USD then chopped sideways for two days. Skip cost: 0R.

Thursday — short USD/JPY at 153.20. This is the trade everyone wants. The desk doesn't take it without 151.50 breaking. Skipped. USD/JPY rallied to 153.80 by Friday. Skip saved: roughly 0.5R.

What we got wrong even on the wins

The Monday EUR/USD trade should have held into the breakout. We exited at 1.0865; price closed Friday at 1.0905. Closing at the range boundary is a defensive habit that costs R when the regime is actually shifting. Not changing the rule — the discipline is worth the edge — but writing it down because it's the third week in a row this has cost us 0.5R+ on a winner.

The math

• Trades taken: 3
• Win rate: 100%
• Avg R: +1.0
• Total R: +3.0
• Trades skipped: 2 (skip-saved R: estimated +0.5)
• Net week: +3.0R locked, +0.5R avoided

Month-to-date is now +6.4R across 9 trades, 7 wins, 2 losses. That's the good kind of variance — we're not betting on it continuing, but we're also not changing what's working.

Educational only. Not investment advice. Read the full risk disclaimer.